the Miami Marlins (14-18) organize the Milwaukee Brewers (21-12) Saturday for Game 2 of their 3-game series with the first pitch scheduled for 6:10 p.m. ET at LoanDepot Park on Friday. let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Brewers versus Marlinsodds with MLB picks and predictions.
Milwaukee won a pitching duel in the series opener 2-1 on Friday as the Marlins SP Pablo Lopez only sold first solo HR to Brewers 2B Kolten Wong and SP Brewers Corbin Burnes‘only ER was a solo shot down the 3rd.
But, Miami relief pitcher Antoine Bender walked into a Milwaukee baserunner in the top of the 9th to earn the Brew Crew victory.
Marlins brewers screened starters
HPL Eric Lauer vs LHP Trevor Rogers
Lauer 3-0 with a 1.82 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 12.7 K/9 in 29 2/3 IP over 5 starts.
- Last start: 6-3 win at the Atlanta Braves on Friday with 6 1/3 IP, 1 ER (2 R), 2 H, 1 HR, 3 BB and 8 K.
- vs. Marlins on the current roster: 1.09 FIP with an expected batting average of .155/.182/.224 (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA), slugging percentage (xSLG) slant line, 33.3K% and speed out of 85.1 mph (EV) in 27 plate appearances (PA).
Rogers 1-4 with an ERA of 5.00, 1.48 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 in 27 IP over 6 starts.
- Last start: No decision in Miami’s 3-2 loss to the San Diego Padres on Sunday with 5 scoreless IPs, 5 Hs, 2 BBs and 3 Ks.
- 2021 against the Marlins: 2-0 with an ERA of 0.82 (11 IP, 1 ER), 10 H, 2 BB and 13 K.
- 2021 vs. Brewers: 2.88 FIP with a .212/.239/.310 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line, 28.1K% and 90.7 mph EV in 32 AP.
Brewers at Marlins odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; to access USA TODAY sports betting hub for sports scores and odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 1 p.m. ET.
- Silver Line (ML) : Brewers -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Marlins +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Race Line (RL)/Against Spread (ATS) : Brewers -1.5 (+140) | Marlins +1.5 (-175)
- Over/Under (O/U) : 6.5 (O: -135 | U: +110)
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Marlins Brewers Pick and Predict
Brewers 4, Marlins 2
BET the BREWERS (-130) because they hit the left-handed pitcher better than Miami and Lauer’s pitching peripherals, both on the year and against Saturday’s opponent, are more impressive than Rogers’. The Miami squad ranks 26th (83), 27th in wOBA (.279) and 29th in BB/K (0.28), according to FanGraphs.
Also, Rogers throws better on the road for some reason. Rogers’ home winning percentage (30.0%), ERA (5.08) and WHIP (1.46) are all worse than his road marks.
Rogers’ smell rate, out-of-bounds swing rate, K% and BB% are all down from last season, according to Statcast. The reverse is true for Lauer’s advanced throwing analytics in 2022, in fact, his K% is up 12.3% from last season and Lauer’s smell rate is up 8 .0%.
TO TAKE the BREWERS (-130).
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Brewers -1.5 (+140) isn’t a big enough gain considering Milwaukee is 3-11 RL as road favorites and Marlins +1.5 (-170) is 3-1 RL in as home underdogs, which includes Friday’s 2-1 loss to the brew team.
SKINNY to LESS THAN 6.5 (+110) because Rogers’ home stats and 2022 numbers should progress to his career averages. Marlins 2-4 O/U in Rogers’ 5 starts this season despite his 5.00 ERA because their bullpen is strong.
Also, the same could be said about the Milwaukee bullpen, but the roster is also struggling against the left-handed pitcher. Brewers are 20th in BB/K rate (0.38) and wRC+ (95), per FanGraphs.
Finally, the weather forecast calls for 10 mph winds blowing from LoanDepot Park’s center field, reducing the chances of long balls.
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