Patrick Cantlay shot a 65 on Saturday and holds a one-shot lead (less than 12) after round three of the BMW Championship.
Let’s look forward to Sunday’s fourth and final round, which features plenty of prop angles to attack the PrizePicks.
Below I give my five flexible PrizePicks games for the fourth round of the BMW Championship. For those unfamiliar with flex games in golf, different combinations of overs and unders generate different payouts.
Using the five games below, getting five of five coupons registers a 12.5x payout, four of five coupons registers a 2x payout, and three of five coupons registers a 0.4x payout.
BMW Championship Round 4 Prize Selection Games
Matt Fitzpatrick: Round 4 Over 7.5 Fairways Hit
Having managed to hit this accessory in the third round, we return to the well. Fitzpatrick is T47 (even par) after shooting a 71 on Saturday.
Fitzpatrick has hit eight or more lanes in each of the first three rounds, a trend that is expected to continue on Sunday. Outside of his putter, the Fitzpatrick driver has been his best club this week. Among the field, Fitzpatrick ranks 19th in SG: Off-the-Tee and 27th in Ride Accuracy.
Don’t expect a regression in those areas of his game. On TOUR this season, Fitzpatrick ranks seventh in SG: Off-the-Tee and 47th in Driving Accuracy.
To give us another edge on this accessory, it leaves in the morning. In the first three laps, the morning wave performed better than the afternoon wave.
I would play that total up to 8.
Max Homa: Round 4 Over 7 Fairways Hit
It’s another prop we’re coming back to after hitting it on Saturday. Homa is T26 at 4 under after shooting a 68 in the third round.
After hitting eight or more fairways in each of the first three rounds, we should expect Homa to finish strong on Sunday. Among the peloton, Homa ranks 13th in SG: Off-the-Tee and 19th in Driving Accuracy.
On TOUR this season, he ranks 29th in SG: Off-the-Tee.
I would play this number up to 7.5.
Patrick Cantlay: Round 4 Under 68 Strokes
In the chalkiest game in this article, we back the guy in first place. Not only do I think Cantlay will shoot a 68 or less for the fourth straight round, but I think he’ll probably shoot closer to the 65 he shot on Saturday.
Better results were expected for Cantlay on Saturday and I think we will see a similar performance in the final round. Cantlay’s overall performance was solid, but his putter held him back.
Entering Sunday, Cantlay ranks just 34th among the SG: Putting field. However, it also ranks fifth in SG: Approach-the-Green, second in SG: Off-the-Tee, and first in SG: Tee-to-Green.
Even when he shot a 65 on Saturday, his putter cost him a few shots (okay, he holeshot for an eagle on 14). Those putts will start to fall for Cantlay, and when they do, he should be able to run away in this event.
I wouldn’t play that total below 68.
Justin Thomas: Round 4 on 68.5 moves
We are also losing a few golfers on Sunday, starting with Thomas. Going into the fourth round, Thomas is T51 at 1-over par after shooting a 75 on Saturday.
At this point in the tournament, Thomas just seems to want to go home. He’s shot a 73 or more in each of the last two rounds and can’t generate any positive momentum.
We’re getting some name recognition in this issue, especially after watching Thomas on Saturday Nine. In fact, Thomas has birdied only two of the last 40 holes he has played!
Among the peloton, Thomas ranks 50th in SG: Approach-the-Green, 40th in SG: Off-the-Tee, and 37th in SG: Tee-to-Green. Will he shoot better than a 73 on Sunday? I hope. Will he fire five shots better? Doubtful.
I would play this number until 69.
Tyrrell Hatton: Round 4 of 69 moves
Hatton is the other golfer we lose on Sunday. Hatton is T14 at 6 under after shooting a 69 on Saturday.
After shooting a 69 or more in each of the last two rounds, we should expect further regression from Hatton. Among the peloton, Hatton ranks only 40th in SG: Approach-the-Green, 58th in SG: Off-the-Tee, 41st in SG: Tee-to-Green, and 63rd in GIR%.
So how is Hatton so high in the rankings? He ranks fourth in SG: Putting and sixth in Scrambling.
While it’s good that this part of the game works, it’s not a sustainable way to get into those events when the rest of your bag has struggled. It’s much more likely that Hatton will be unable to continue up and down from tough spots than it is that his score improves from the last two rounds.
I have faith in Hatton’s putter and it will likely stay hot, but for a guy with a 56.07% scrambling percentage (169th on TOUR this season), regression is likely.
I wouldn’t play that total above 69.