Just watching esports can be an exhilarating experience, but nothing increases the stakes like putting something more on the line. At the same time, figuring out what games to bet on and how much money to risk isn’t. a small task. That’s why Upcomer brought in the experts to set the odds and bring you League of Legends betting favorites for some of this weekend’s most important games.
This week we plan to bet on the final matches for the summer qualifiers between the League of Legends Championship Series, League of Legends European Championship and League of Legends Champions Korea. Here’s what you need to know to cash out throughout the weekend.
T1 against DWG KIA
T1 went through two playoff rounds to meet DWG KIA in the final, but they may have finally met their match. The market places them around 31/69 to cause a shock, but we believe their odds are around 36/64. Our model looks like it’s just insufficient value to be worth betting on, but getting 2x payout for a reasonably possible upset is tempting. If the odds on T1 change slightly (up to + 219 / 3.19), or if you can find a quote that offers such odds, go for it.
DWG KIA has been on top all season and shouldn’t give up his crown. In fact, they’ve already secured a place at the Worlds. They either win and qualify automatically or take second place and block 190 championship points which would push Gen. G’s 150 back for second qualifying place.
T1, on the other hand, are winners or misses. Second place puts them under Gen.G’s total, so they should try their luck in the regional finals.
This means DK is seated well, so what exactly gives them the upper hand? Individually, their players are incredibly talented, all winning around 68-70% of their pro games, which certainly tops T1’s 59-61% range. However, we’ve said before that there’s a bigger difference between average and good players than between good and great, and that’s exactly what’s going on here.
It is still a fairly strong gap. DK has also found a squad of players who really click together, with up to 6% improvement in some players’ win rates on top of their already high numbers. T1 also has fairly strong team ties but is lagging behind. And face to face, these teams actually do worse against each other.
It might sound contradictory, but imagine this: if two teams are both used to winning rates of over 60% but manage to 50/50 against each other, then both sides will feel like ‘they’re not doing as well as they should. It is complicated by the fact that multiple players enter and exit teams over time, but the logic is similar.
On a similar note, T1 had a noticeably less cohesive roster, so expect their gameplay to feel less well oiled. Also, watch out for Heo “ShowMaker” Su and Lee “Faker” Sang-hyeok who are fighting for Ryze. This choice of champion can end up being a decision maker of the game.
Considering all of these factors, we want to bet on the underdog here. It’s exciting and they’re actually quite strong. If the markets were just a little more favorable we would take the bet, as our model doesn’t think DWG KIA will be as oppressive in this game as the odds suggest.
Rogue vs. Fnatic
In the LEC Lower Bracket Semi-Final, we have an almost perfect coinflip. The market places Rogue and Fnatic at 50/50 percent fractions, so this one could really go both ways. Our model leans just towards Snape, but not enough to make the bets worth it. If you can get a fair bet (with friends, for example), place it on Rogue.
The loser of it still wins third place and a Worlds Play-In qualifier, but being at a draw for an actual location of the mMain event is a scary proposition. Our Magic 8-ball says: Both teams have above average players with no obvious advantage here.
Fnatic has both the strongest players (Adam “Adam” Maanane) and the weakest (Elias “Upset” Lipp), but overall this one sucks. Snape gets a nod from us on team synergy, however. They’ve found a way to outperform together, as several Fnatic players basically live up to expectations.
This is in part due to the fact that Rogue simply had a more consistent roster, so they had more time to really adjust to the style of play. It also helped them to be slightly positive in their victories over players from Fnatic, compared to their normal win rate. At the same time, this is mitigated by their generally less explosive victories, which offer more opportunities for their opponents to come back. If they don’t let Gabriël “Bwipo” Rau catch Trundle, they should still be fine.
In the end, these two teams are incredibly balanced. Across various metrics that our model examines, each team has its own strengths and weaknesses relative to the other. Our model would say that Rogue has a little more of these strengths, but not enough to find a bet value against the market’s 50/50 valuation.
100 thieves against Cloud9
This is our closest deal with the market this week: 52.5 / 47.5 vs. 53/47 from the market. We would normally round this up to the same summary stat – which should be a pretty obvious indication that there won’t be any bet value here. After a painful first-round loss to Team Liquid, Cloud9 showed that while they are down, they are not. They have now landed a guaranteed third place to qualify for Worlds Play-In, although both teams here will want the security of an invitation to the main event.
Cloud9 has a slightly stronger team individually, with win rates of 59-62% versus 55-57% for 100 Thieves. It certainly falls into that good vs. slightly better-than-good territory discussed above, but even a slight edge could make the difference.
100 Thieves actually play a bit better as a team, lending themselves about a 3% boost compared to Cloud9’s 2%. Historically, however, 100 Thieves have battled Cloud9 players, as evidenced by their 2-3 record against Cloud9 during the spring and summer seasons. They also have a little less experience on their team and a little more inclined to let their opponents come back into the game, which leads them to deviate very slightly from a level playing field.
Nonetheless, a 3% incline is fairly easy to overcome and is well within the variance range for a team’s daily performance. If 100 thieves show up to play, they could easily look like the stronger team – especially if they deny Luka “Advantages”Perković his choice Ryze.
But to actually bet, we have to disagree with the market. Otherwise, we just bleed vig. With less than half a point deviation from our prediction, there is simply no reason to bet here – at least not if you are betting for value. It should still be a fantastic match to watch, even without skin in the game.