Keeler Johnson’s picks and plays for May 31


Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares his picks and plays for Tuesday, May 31 at Almost Isle Downs and Horseshoe Indianapolis, as well as a ticket to the mandatory $17,212 Super High 5 carry at Fort Erie.

Today special offers from TwinSpires to understand:

  • Mid-week betting: Receive refunds on winning bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in certain Parx Racing races.
  • Trifecta Tuesday: Receive a 15% bonus (up to $25 per day) on winning Trifecta tickets.

Choices and games

Almost Isle Downs: Race 1: $8,000 to claim (six furlongs on Tapeta, 1:30 p.m. ET)

#2 Lawn Darts (8-5) has a solid 5-for-13 record at Almost Isle. The six-year-old mare returned to that oval on May 17 with a pace victory in a $5,000 claimer, for which she earned a solid 78 Brisnet pace rating.

Lawn Dart was claimed from that victory by coach Eduardo Rojas, a 40% winner of this competition who is hitting at a solid 20% rate with new claim acquisitions. Even moving up the ranks, Lawn Dart looks set to battle for victory under hot jockey Pablo Morales.

Downgrading #4 This jump street (5-2) can fight with #6 Yes, it’s Erie (3-1) to complete the exacta.

  • $15 Exact: 2 with 4.6 ($30)

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (1,400 meters, 2:30 p.m. ET)

#1 Malibu SS (4-1) showed promise on his debut sprinting six furlongs at Fair Grounds, rallying to finish third with an 82 Brisnet speed rating that is tied for the highest figure in the peloton on Tuesday . He was then beaten to eighth place in a special one-mile first weight at Churchill Downs, but that race featured a large field on Kentucky Derby day, and the distance may have been too far for Malibu S S.

Cutting back on travel and facing a smaller field at Indiana Grand may help send Malibu SS into the winner’s circle for hot trainer Tom Amoss, who went 9-for-21 (43%) to start the competition. Add hot jockey Edgar Morales (a 27% winner this encounter), and Malibu SS is an attractive winning game.

We will search #4 Go Emi (3-1), #5 Barbarian (5-2), and #6 Homesickness (9-5) to complete a trifecta capitalizing on the Trifecta Tuesday promotion.

  • $18 to be won on the Malibu SS #1
  • $2 Trifecta: 1 with 4,5,6 with 4,5,6 ($12)
    Total: $30

Almost Isle Downs: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (4 1/2 furlongs, 2:51 p.m. ET)

High-percentage coach Larry Rivelli has gotten off to a great start at Près Isle this game, going 3-for-3 so far. He can continue his momentum with the unpublished two-year-old filly #2 Return to Ohio (3-1).

Daughter of juvenile champion Midshipman (who sires a respectable 13% of winners among rookies), Back to Ohio showed flashes of speed in the morning, including hitting a three furlong ball in: 36 1/5 from the Hawthorne gate start. . Rivelli is winning at a rate of 27% with riders making their debuts at the first special weights, and jockey Jareth Loveberry (3 for 4 to start the competition) is named to ride, so all signs suggest Back to Ohio is sitting. on a winning run.

We’ll bet back to Ohio to win and the key on #4 Motown Mischief (6-1) in exact.

  • $20 to be won on #2 Back to Ohio
  • $10 Exacta: 2 with 4
    Total: $30

Carry-over watch

Fort Erie Race 10: $17,212 Super High 5 Mandatory Payout (8:17 p.m. ET)

The 2022 race meet at Fort Erie kicks off Tuesday with a 10-race card highlighted by the five-stadia Sprint Into Summer Cup S. Bettors will be happy to hear that there is still a C$21,789 (US$17,212) Super High 5 carryover from 2021 scheduled for mandatory scatter.

Earning a share of the deferral will not be easy. Many participants are untested on the dirt, and there are a few newbies in the mix.

For example, what about the favorite from the morning line? #4 Invisible Friend (5-2)? The three-year-old gelding has touched the board in four of his five starts on the synthetic Tapeta track at Woodbine, but has never competed on dirt. The change in surface is a significant question mark, although the fact that trainer John Simms is winning at a 32% rate with horses switching from synthetic to dirt is a positive sign. Simms also ranked among the top coaches at Fort Erie last year, winning at a rate of 26%.

#2 Maximum Danger (4-1) is another tricky contender to analyze. He ran slightly faster on the Brisnet Speed ​​rating scale than Invisible Friend and started 2022 on a high note, finishing second in a $15,000-$14,000 debut contender sprinting six furlongs at Woodbine. . But like Invisible Friend, Maximum Danger has yet to run on land.

If you want to support a horse with a proven form of dirt, #10 MV Speed (6-1) could be the one. He hit the trifecta in four of his five starts on the dirt track at Tampa Bay Downs, including a trio of sprints. His Brisnet Speed ​​ratings are respectable and trainer Richard Davis earns at an excellent 20% rate with shippers.

#6 Skills Test (5-1) also cannot be ruled out. He missed finishing last in an optional $40,000 first claimant at Woodbine earlier this month, but two starts back he finished second in a $15,000 claimant at the same track, earning solid odds speed of 75 Brisnet. Jockey Christopher Husbands is nominated to ride, and that’s significant since Husbands won more races than any other jockey at Fort Erie last year.

Let’s put Invisible Friend and MV Speed ​​at the top of our tickets, highlight Maximum Danger and Skills Test below, and hit the “ALL” button for fourth or fifth place (depending on the ticket):

  • 20 cents Super High 5: 4.10 with 2,4,6,10 with 2,4,6,10 with 2,4,6,10 with ALL ($19.20)
  • 20 cent Super High 5: 4.10 with 2,4,6,10 with 2,4,6,10 with ALL with 2,4,6,10 ($19.20)
    Total: $38.40

Good luck!


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