Joohyung Kim among 5 Sunday picks

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JJ Spaun shot a 68 on Saturday and holds a one-shot lead at 13 under par after round three of the FedEx St. Jude Championship. Now we look forward to Sunday’s fourth round, which features plenty of prop angles to attack the PrizePicks.

Below, I list my five PrizePicks flex plays for Round 4 of the 2022 FedEx St. Jude Championship. For those unfamiliar with flex plays in golf, different combinations of overs and unders generate different payouts.

Using the five games below, getting five of five coupons registers a 12.5x payout, four of five coupons registers a 2x payout, and three of five coupons registers a 0.4x payout.

PrizePicks Play

Cameron Smith: Round 4 Under 67 Strokes

After pushing on this accessory yesterday, we are going to try it again. Smith is T3 at 11 under after shooting a 67 on Saturday.

Smith has now shot a 67 or less in each of the first three rounds, a trend that is expected to continue on Sunday. Playing the sharpest golf of his career this season, Smith has three wins and seven top 15s in his last 13 tournaments.

We have seen this solid play continue through the first three rounds of this tournament. Among the remaining field, Smith ranks 12th in SG: Approach-the-Green, 16th in SG: Off-the-Tee, ninth in SG: Tee-to-Green, eighth in Greens in Regulation Percentage (GIR%) and 17th in Jamming.

I wouldn’t play that total below 67.

Joohyung Kim: 4th round in less than 67.5 moves

We managed to hit that prop on Saturday and are heading back to the pit on Sunday. Kim is T17 at 8 under after shooting a 66 on Saturday.

As expected, Kim’s Saturday went much better than the first two rounds. His putter was the only club in his bag holding him back going into the weekend and the putts finally started to drop.

With the putter starting to work, it was extremely likely that Kim’s score would drop due to the quality of the rest of his game. Among the remaining field, Kim ranks 10th in SG: Approach-the-Green, ninth in SG: Off-the-Tee, fifth in SG: Tee-to-Green and sixth in GIR%.

I would play that number up to 67.

JT Poston: 4th round in less than 68.5 moves

You may be picking up a trend here, as I’m a big believer in “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it”. That being said, we come back to the pit on another pillar that we successfully hit on Saturday: Poston’s under.

Poston is T29 at 6 under after shooting a 68 on Saturday. TPC Southwind is a course that suits Poston’s game well, benefiting those who are big iron players with a strong ability to scramble.

On the TOUR this season, Poston ranks 51st in SG: Tee-to-Green and 19th in Scrambling. Poston recently played the best golf of his career with four top-25 finishes in his last five tournaments, including his John Deere Classic victory and second place finish at the Travelers Championship.

Poston has shot a 68 or less in six of his last 10 rounds at TPC Southwind. Add his recent form and he should be able to do it again on Sunday.

I wouldn’t play that total below 68.5.

Xander Schauele: Round 4 on 67.5 moves

Another game hit on Saturday: Schauffele should continue to struggle on Sunday. Schauffele failed to break that total in each of the first three rounds and enters the T61 final round at 1 under par.

We’re getting some name-recognition bias with that total, especially given Schauffele’s low metrics so far. Among the remaining field, Schauffele ranks only 69th in SG: Approach-the-Green, 58th in SG: Off-the-Tee, 66th in SG: Tee-to-Green and 60th in GIR%.

As expected, Schuaffele’s putting was unable to keep his game afloat. Those putts started to miss, causing Schauffele’s score to drop sharply in the third round.

With the quality of the rest of his game, we should not expect a positive regression on Sunday. In his last seven rounds at TPC Southwind, Schauffele has shot a 68 or more each time.

I would play this number until 68.

Shane Lowry: Round 4 on 68.5 hits

The other golfer we lose on Sunday is Shane Lowry. After the first three rounds, Lowry is T52 at 3 under par.

This could be another situation where we get value due to name recognition bias. Lowry is another golfer whose performance depends on his putt, which is most likely unsustainable.

If Lowry misses just a few more putts on Sunday, his score will drop as the rest of his game has struggled. Among the remaining field, Lowry only ranks 54th in SG: Approach-the-Green, 66th in SG: Off-the-Tee, 63rd in SG: Tee-to-Green, and 68th in GIR%.

I wouldn’t play that total higher than 68.5.

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