the Boston Red Sox (7-8) conclude their 3-game set with the Tampa Bay Stingrays (8-7) Sunday at Tropicana Field with the first pitch scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET. let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Red Sox vs. Rays odds with MLB picks and predictions.
The season series is tied 1-1. Boston won Game 1 of the series on Friday 4-3, then Tampa tied the series on Saturday with a 3-2 win when the Rays CF Kevin Kiermaier hit a 2-run home run late in the 10th.
Red Sox to Rays projected starters
HPL rich hill vs LHP Shane McClanahan
Hill (0-1, 7.29 ERA) lost its last outing 8-3 to the Minnesota Twins on Monday. He went 4 2/3 IP, allowing 4 ER on 6 H, 2 HR, 2 BB and 2 K.
- vs. Rays on current roster: 2.60 FIP with .211 batting average (BA), .257 wOBA, .301 expected hit percentage (xSLG), 34.1 K% and 83 speed out (EV), 8 mph in 41 plate appearances (PA).
McClanahan (0-1, 2.40 ERA) earned a no-decision decision in Tampa’s 4-2 win over the Chicago Cubs on Monday. He went 6 IP, giving up 1 ER on 4 H and 0 BB with 9 K.
- 2021 vs Red Sox: 1-1 with a 2.81 ERA (16 IP, 5 ER), 15 H, 5 BB and 15 K in 3 starts.
- vs Red Sox on the current roster: 3.13 FIP with a .311 BA, .322 wOBA, .586 xSLG, 20.0 K% and 94.5 mph EV in 65 PA.
Red Sox to Rays odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; to access USA TODAY sports betting hub for sports scores and odds for a full list. The rows were last updated at 1:36 a.m. ET.
- Silver Line (ML): Red Sox +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Rays -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
- Race Line (RL)/Against Spread (ATS): Red Sox +1.5 (-150) | Rays -1.5 (+122)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
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Picks and predictions from the Red Sox to the Rays
Rays 6, Red Sox 1
LEAN RAYS (-180) since the implied win probability on this line is 64.3% and Tampa should win this game at least 70% of the time. But, I’m confident enough in the Rays to take their RL instead for a better payout.
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Run line/Against the spread
BET the RADIUS -1.5 (+122) for 1 unit because they have advantages in the three most important phases of baseball: throwing and pitching and hitting relief.
McClanahan has some elite stuff and would be a top-two starter in most MLB rotations while 18-year-old veteran Hill is definitely a back guy in the rotation.
The Rays lack a bunch of talented arms, but their bullpen still has a better xFIP rate, hard hit rate, WHIP, and K/BB than the Boston bullpen.
The Tampa squad is fifth in wRC+ and seventh in wOBA against left-handed pitchers while the Boston squad ranks 18th and 15th in those respective categories.
BET RADIUS -1.5 (+122).
PAYMENT UNDER 7.5 (-107) because Tropicana Field is one of baseball’s most pitching-friendly parks, McClanahan is an All-Star-caliber pitcher, and the Red Sox-Rays have played a lot more against the underdogs in recent meetings.
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