4 Key Superfecta Saturday at Oaklawn Park

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For me one of the main appeals of superfectas is that a pool of probable superfecta wins is not displayed which makes this bet an unknown business compared to an exacta and even trifectas in certain circumstances where probable earnings are available. However, if you observe the results of the pool over a long period, you will realize that the favorites tend to overbet in the pool and that when underdogs arrive, especially in the first two positions, explosive gains can be made. result.

This is why a 10 cent superfecta key is an excellent leveraged bet.

The table below summarizes the reduction in your spend for superfecta bets when entering or framing your selections.

SUPERFECTA KEY BET SAVINGS

# OF BET INTEREST

IN SUPER BET

BOX

KEY

$ DIFFERENCE

% DIFFERENCE

5

$12.00

$9.60

$2.40

20%

6

$36.00

$24.00

$12.00

33%

7

$84.00

$48.00

$36.00

43%

8

$168.00

$84.00

$84.00

50%

There are books and it makes sense that the box bet makes no sense unless all horses are valued equally by the handicapper. Without getting too technical here, it’s obvious that if you have an opinion on a race, any box doesn’t make much sense.

The superfecta key requires you to ensure that your keyed horse must finish in one of the first four positions. To maximize return, I look for three conditions to create high earning potential.

The conditions are:

  • Betting interest from at least nine entries but not more than 12

  • The ability to confidently grab a horse that is not an odds or high-bet favorite

  • Champ who has seemingly overlooked runners in the pool who would be at very high odds at the time of publication but could be in the top four at random

The Saturday card in Oaklawn offers four opportunities on dirt, the only surface in Oaklawn.

In Oaklawn

Race 4

A field of ten allowance riders are entered in a mile and a sixteenth dirt event for ages 4 and up with coaches Steve Asmussen and Robertino Diodoro each having two entries respectively. Eight riders are leaving dirt races in Oaklawn, another on a layoff is leaving a synthetic Woodbine road for a new trainer, and another on a layoff is leaving a dirt event in Saratoga. Two runners stretch and one is out of the claim. The field combined for an in-the-money rate of over 50 percent with a range rate of nearly three out of four. There’s an abundant amount of speed, with runners having the lead on second call combining for a rate of almost 40%. I expect a blistering pace, with the advantage for staggered runners and shooters.

The No. 5 Stayin’ Out Late is one of Steve Asmussen’s runners, and he’s coming out of a sprint in Saratoga against some very tough competitors. His off-pace running style will be very advantageous here, and he should be able to relax and be very hard on the stretch as the key horse, with attractive odds of 8-1.

Trainer Ron Moquett has one of the stretching horses in No. 10 Lamutanaatty that has speed, but isn’t necessarily a pure lead runner given just two starts at six furlongs. This runner’s upside potential is reasonable and he projects to be as fast as the best runners in the pack, which merits his inclusion at 15-1.

The No. 7 Majestic West has been in the money four out of five from distance, and his docile running pace as a crusher makes him a great superfecta player at 12-1 odds.

The No. 9 Beer Chaser is another runner stretching for the first time. His latest effort is a throw against very fast fractions in a sprint event, and he will face a smoother pace here with the potential for increased distance. His odds are 20-1 in his second start for coach Kim Puhl.

The likely favorite is number 3 Palace Coup, one of the riders trained by Robertino Diodoro. He’s hard to dismiss with his six-for-eight record over the distance. He’s a guy to lead that’s probably going to last for a part.

The game

$0.10 Superfecta Key 5 with 3, 7, 9 and 10. Total bet: $9.60.

Race 5

A peloton of ten geldings will sprint over six stages on clay during this event reserved for ages 4 and up. The peloton is made up of local riders all having their last start in Oaklawn with coach Lynn Chleborad having two entries with two riders racing out of the claim. The field combined for an in-the-money rate of about 50% overall and remotely. There is reasonable speed with runners leading on second call about two out of ten starts. I foresee a fast pace with the advantage for the riders in the middle of the peloton.

No. 10 Tappin Fora Dance is a grinder, which is an unusual description for a sprinter, but this contestant runs evenly and always seems to be part of the mix despite not winning much. At 6-1, he’s your key runner.

No 4 Skyscanner rushes to claim high-percentage small-stable trainer Aaron Shorter. He is closer and will have a rhythm to follow with a rate in the money consistent with the ground. At 15-1 he is an attractive superfecta player.

No. 5 Seau has the most starts in the field with another rider, and before his last start, which is a draw, he had a top four placing eight of nine starts. He’s a consistent runner to include with attractive odds of 10-1.

One of the two runners coached by Lynn Chleborad is No. 3, Mr. Ankery, who is most likely to lead. This runner is expected to last for a share at odds of 5-1, with a record in line with the field average.

The likely favorite trained by Robertino Diodoro is No. 1 Jack Van Berg. He doesn’t need to lead the guy, and has run some of the fastest races in the peloton, and can’t be fired, although he looks like an undercoat here.

The game

$0.10 Superfecta Key 10 with 1, 3, 4 and 5. Total bet: $9.60.

Race 6

Inaugural one-mile-on-dirt event for 3-year-olds drew a field of 11 colts and geldings, including a first starter, eight who raced last at Oaklawn and two with last outs at Fairgrounds and Churchill respectively. One runner is running after a layoff, another after a protest and six are trying a route for the first time. The field is lightly run and has been in the money about 40% of the time, with only two having attempted a mile with one of those two finishing in the money. Only one runner had the lead on the second call out of a total of 18 starts combined. Given the little run of these runners, predicting the pace is very difficult. This race is worth taking risks given a lot of unpredictability.

No 4 Plausible Denile stretches and projects to be as quick as anyone on the pitch for coach James DiVito. He was on the pace on his debut finishing second and should be a factor throughout at 10-1 odds. It’s your key runner at attractive odds.

Coach Rene Amescua had a great meeting in Oaklawn with a limited number of runners and has a very good first-time routing record. No 10 Abrierwin has a sprint start showing little but should have a chance here on a route after running evenly but behind No 4 Plausible Denile on his debut. He deserves to be included at odds of 20-1.

Kingmaker No. 3 is training with Ron Moquett and also stretching after his debut where he finished third. Similar to No. 4 Plausible Denile, he projects to be as fast as anyone on the pitch and should close from the middle of the pack at odds of 6-1.

The likely favorite trained by Brad Cox is the No. 1 Maasai Warrior who cuts the distance of two consecutive races to a mile and a sixteenth at Fairgrounds after his Oaklawn debut at 6 furlongs. He has tactical speed and should be on or near the lead throughout.

General Strike No 7 stretches after three consecutive seven-stadia efforts at Churchill since its last run in November last year. This runner is expected to improve with distance and the almost five month layoff. He is expected to compete in favoritism with the No. 1 Maasai warrior.

The game

$0.10 Superfecta Key 4 with 1, 3, 7 and 10. Total bet: $9.60.

Race 10

This one-mile dirt allotment event for fillies and mares 3 years and older drew 11 runners with nine of those dirt races going out in Oaklawn, an outing from a dirt event in Churchill after a bet on foot and another expedition off a turf event in Santa Anita for a California-based trainer. Three runners attempt a dirt course for the first time. On a combined basis, these runners have been in the money more than 50% of the time and nearly three out of four tries over the distance. There is little speed, with runners having the lead on second call just under one in ten times. I expect the horses placed in front to have an advantage.

No. 4 Let’s Cruise, who has a pressing racing style, stretches for trainer McLean Robertson. She will face a much smoother pace than her sprint efforts and she plans to be a bit slower but competitive with the best riders in the peloton. At odds of 6-1, she is your key runner.

No. 5 Trouville comes out of a grass event in Santa Anita for California coach Leonard Powell. She’s been in the money in all four of her starts at that dirt distance and looks like a 12-1 overlay.

Another stretching runner is No. 9 A Real Jewel for trainer Greg Compton, who has a reasonably good record with a small stable. This claim runner has a balanced running style and should be close all the way at odds of 15-1.

The No. 1 Duplicitous has been competitive against multiple runners in this area and looks like a docile runner still hanging around. He fits the superfecta profile and has been in the money 10 of his 18 dirt tries with a grinding style that makes him a factor here at 8-1.

Steve Asmussen trains the likely favorite in Pharoah’s Heart No. 7, which has the fastest races in the field and has never been worse than fourth in five lifetime starts, including two runs. She is making her second start for Asmussen after being based in California and has faced just four riders in each of her four West Coast starts.

The game

$0.10 Superfecta Key 4 with 1, 5, 7 and 9. Total bet: $9.60.

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